He really is in the Iowa polls but a caucus is so different that it is difficult to gauge by polls. Organization and hardcore support are crucial. They're polling from a sample of 3 million of which maybe 125K will caucus. From all accounts Dean has the best org. there and Gep's is good too as he and his supporters have been down this road before and the union support usually comes out to caucus. These polls may be setting expectations too high for Kerry, it's a mixed blessing -- if he now finishes 3rd, even a close 3rd, it will be a disappointment where as a week ago it wouldn't have been.
My best guess is Dean pulls it our narrowly over Gephardt, with Kerry and Edwards close behind. I'll say Dean 28, Gep 26, Kerry 22, Edwards 17.
Then again, who the heck knows what those nutty Iowans will do!
My best guess is Dean pulls it our narrowly over Gephardt, with Kerry and Edwards close behind. I'll say Dean 28, Gep 26, Kerry 22, Edwards 17.
Then again, who the heck knows what those nutty Iowans will do!
I know very little about American domestic politics but from what i have noticed the media in the US likes to portray `close` elections, in order for people to keep tuning in. In other words, if it were an election with a clear favorite, people would not want to tune in.
I bet on Arnold for California and the media kept talking about how close Bustamante was to winning and in the end it wasnt even that close.
Maybe im just talking trash
I bet on Arnold for California and the media kept talking about how close Bustamante was to winning and in the end it wasnt even that close.
Maybe im just talking trash
I remember everyone saying Bush had ead going into the final weekend, then the DUI news hit that Thursday and all hell broke loose after that.
I did get burned on the Cali elections; the LA Times had a poll saying it was a tossup and I jumped on Bustamonte at pretty high odds. Pissed that money away.
I'm snakebit right now. At WSex I bought Gephardt at $10; he's down to $5 now. I bought Clark at $28 a week ago; he's at $23 now and falling. My big bet with Dean still looks OK but all my hedges have sucked. It wouldn't surprise me to see Edwards shock everyone. He is the only one not dishing dirt and hasn't made many mistakes. If I was undecided and voting, I'd take him over the rest of the clowns.
I did get burned on the Cali elections; the LA Times had a poll saying it was a tossup and I jumped on Bustamonte at pretty high odds. Pissed that money away.
I'm snakebit right now. At WSex I bought Gephardt at $10; he's down to $5 now. I bought Clark at $28 a week ago; he's at $23 now and falling. My big bet with Dean still looks OK but all my hedges have sucked. It wouldn't surprise me to see Edwards shock everyone. He is the only one not dishing dirt and hasn't made many mistakes. If I was undecided and voting, I'd take him over the rest of the clowns.
SG,
MSNBC had a poll (I created a thread about it earlier) and it showed that Lieberman had 12% of the votes (120,000+ unscientific votes).
How he managed to get so many surprised me, but that seemed significant given that he really hasn't done anything newsworthy.
MSNBC had a poll (I created a thread about it earlier) and it showed that Lieberman had 12% of the votes (120,000+ unscientific votes).
How he managed to get so many surprised me, but that seemed significant given that he really hasn't done anything newsworthy.
Pointless to take Gep to win nomination, I would have told you that. Even if he wins Iowa, he's got nothing in NH and no money for beyond. If you're hedgin I hope you took Kerry because if he wins, he's the one with the most to gain from an Iowa win because he has the potential for NH support, and somewhat beyond with 2 strong showings. Edwards can't win it all, but he's done himself proud and could be a force in the future. Outside of some brokered convention, it's really a 3-am race between Dean, Clark and Kerry. No one else can pull it off. Kerry is really THE one to watch on Monday, his expectations have been raised and now anything short of a close 2nd would be a disappointment but a win would be a coup.
Well it just goes to show ya,even though the implosian of Dean is mostly his own doing,the people of this country end up going with same old Washington insider with more money than god although being a democrat Kerry would deny it (God,and being rich beyond belief)....People are always crying "throw the bums out" and they end up just rehashing the same old bums.
